Playoffs Slipping Through The Fingers: A Turning Point For Treaty?

By Emma Dineen

All opinions expressed are 100% my own, unless stated otherwise.

It’s been a rough few weeks for Treaty United. Draws upon losses and no league win since early July. With just eight games left, the pressure isn’t just building, it’s biting.

Even the online chatter has shifted. Back in spring, fans were buzzing about playoff pushes and the squad’s potential. Now? The conversation is sharper. Criticism of tactics, team selection, even the club’s direction is bubbling up. After nearly five years, the honeymoon period is seemingly coming to a close.

Then came Dundalk. What was meant to be another gritty night against the league leaders turned into a collapse for the ages. Treaty’s flaws didn’t just show; they were neon-lit for all to see.

Dundalk Run Riot At The Markets Field

Just over a month ago, I wrote that Treaty had quietly carved a reputation as one of the league’s trickiest opponents for the big boys. In 2024, Cork City couldn’t lay a glove on them: four meetings, no defeats—three 1–1s, one 0–0.

Fast forward to 2025, and Dundalk inherited that mantle. Treaty United had faced them three times without losing, the only team in the league the Lilywhites hadn’t beaten. They looked resilient: a dramatic 2–2 comeback in March, a 1–1 draw at home in April, another late equaliser in June. History was on their side… until it wasn’t.

Football doesn’t care about history. Ten minutes in, the script was shredded. A poor clearance from Ben Lynch, a floated cross from Aodh Dervin, and Daryl Horgan did his thing. 1–0. Five minutes later, Mark Byrne had a half-chance, Patrick Ferry the same. 

And then… chaos.

Horgan again, slipping past the backline, sliding it past Corey Chambers. 2–0 after just 20 minutes. From there, Treaty’s defense unraveled. Gbemi Arubi left Lynch and Conroy for dead, Chambers managed a fingertip save, but the ball ricocheted off the bar and in. 3–0. Eight minutes later, Evan O’Connor, under pressure, turned the ball into his own net. 4–0 by halftime. Treaty looked broken.

Changes at the break. Fionn Doherty and Chris Horgan (for a bit of brotherly rivalry) came on to make it a five at the back, and the boys up front forgot what it was like to touch the ball, but it was already too late. Dundalk smelled blood. 65 minutes: Eoin Kenny heads in number five. 77 minutes: Rohan Vaughan delicately slots six. And to put the final nail in the coffin, Chambers clipped a Dundalk runner in the box. Penalty. Horgan completes his hat-trick. 7–0.

Dundalk didn’t just win. They dismantled Treaty. That crushing defeat left Tommy Barrett’s side facing a new reality: from “the team nobody wanted to face” to “the fixture everyone hopes for next.”

Watch the highlights (or lowlights, depending on your allegiance) here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHKd8Xy0K38

TEAMS:

Treaty United: #1. Corey Chambers, #3. Ben Lynch, #5. Lee Devitt, #8. Colin Conroy (73’ Steven Healy), #9. Patrick Ferry (73’ Joe Hanson), #11. Mark Byrne, #18. Connor Wilson (85’ Richkov Boevi), #20. Evan O’Connor (45’ Chris Horgan), #25. Mark Walsh ©, #27. Robbie Lynch, #30. Mark Murphy (45’ Fionn Doherty)

Bench: #32. Matthew Boylan, #2. Richkov Boevi, #6. Steven Healy, #16. Joe Hanson, #23. Fionn Doherty, #26. Roy Lawlor, #28. Chris Horgan, #33. Eóin Martin, #99 Trpimir Vrljicak

Dundalk FC: #1. Enda Minogue, #2. Conor O’Keeffe #4. Mayowa Animasahun, #6. Aodh Dervin, #7. Daryl Horgan ©, #8. Harry Groome #11. Gbemi Arubi, #15. Vinnie Leonard, #16. Eoin Kenny, #27. Declan McDaid, #31. John Ross Wilson

Bench: #18. Peter Cherrie, #9. Dean Ebbe #14. Norman Garbett, #17. Keith Ward #19. Sean Spaight, #23. Andy Paraschiv, #24. Joseph Trevor Molloy Murray, #26. Shane Tracey, #29. Rohan Vaughan





What’s Happened to Treaty United This Season?

Earlier this year, I wrote that if Treaty wanted to keep their playoff dreams alive, they had to turn the Markets Field into a fortress. And for a while, they did just that. Limerick’s home ground was a place visiting sides left frustrated, empty-handed, and muttering under their breath.

But huge cracks have appeared. And with them, Treaty’s hold on the playoff race has started to slip. On paper, the home form still looks solid: 35 points, 69% earned at the Markets Field, scoring 59% of their goals there. If only home results counted, they’d be comfortably in 4th.

• Home record: 7W – 3D – 4L
• Away record: 2W – 5D – 7L
• Overall record: 9W – 8D – 11L

The problem? Away days have been a disaster. Just 11 points from 42. That’s a return that would leave them 7th if the table was built on away results alone. For most of the first half of the season, Treaty looked stubborn, structured, hard to break down. Lately? Defensive discipline has gone out the window. The 7–0 hammering by Dundalk didn’t just crush morale, it obliterated goal difference and highlighted just how fragile this squad has become.

Some numbers tell the story better than any narrative:

• Goals scored: 41 overall, with Lee Devitt contributing 14. Although his scoring touch has cooled off, with his last league goal coming on July 4th (excluding his FAI Cup strike on July 18th).
• Goals conceded: 38 overall, but 18 in their last 8 games.
• Clean sheets: None in their last 8 matches.
• Late collapses: A staggering 37% of goals conceded have come after the 75th minute.

And the bigger trend is even worse:

• Treaty’s points per game have dropped from 1.25 earlier this season to just 0.75 in recent weeks, a 40% decline.
• They’re now conceding 2.25 goals per game over the last eight matches, up 65.4% from their season average of 1.36.
• Meanwhile, goals scored per game are down 31.5% compared to the first half of the season.

That’s not bad luck. That’s momentum gone, confidence drained, and form nosediving. No matter how much you like (or dislike) Treaty United, the stats don’t lie.

It feels like once Treaty clawed their way to 5th, they just… stayed there. Not moving up, not dropping too far, just stuck in limbo while points quietly dried up.

If the table was based only on the last eight matches, they’d be sitting 9th, one away from bottom.

Now, with just eight games left, an even split between home and away, the margin for error is basically gone. The playoff race is a knife fight:

• 4th: UCD — 43 pts
• 5th: Treaty United — 35 pts
• 6th: Finn Harps — 31 pts (next opponents)
• 7th: Wexford — 30 pts

This clash with Finn Harps is very important. A win opens breathing space, a seven-point cushion on 6th (depending on Wexford). A draw, or worse (and probably most likely given recent performances), a loss, throws them straight back into the mix. Treaty has enough firepower to compete, but right now, they can’t stop conceding, they can’t close games, and confidence is paper-thin. With 24 points left to play for, it’s do or die.

(Stats courtesy of SoccerStats.com)

Is It The Turning Point?

Fans are increasingly frustrated with a style of play that feels overly defensive, slow, and predictable. Many feel the team lacks ambition. The sentiment online is clear. Even with arguably one of Treaty’s strongest squads on paper, young talent feels overlooked, and squad depth isn’t translating into results or attacking football. Substitutions often come too late or in response to errors, rather than through proactive game management, leaving the team exposed and the fans demoralized.

Fans point out that previous Treaty squads, often working with smaller budgets, played more entertaining football and were more competitive than the current team, despite the increased resources now available. Recent heavy defeats like the 7–0 loss to Dundalk echo past collapses such as the 7–0 loss to Waterford in 2023. Injuries to key players like Lee J. Lynch and Karl O’Sullivan are a factor, but even at full strength, the team remains vulnerable due to tactical rigidity.

Post-match comments after the Dundalk collapse show a manager trying to balance accountability with reassurance, but they also highlight structural issues. Barrett admitted that the team “conceded really sloppy goals that we normally don't concede” and acknowledged that players “dropped their heads too easily.” Yet his framing often presents the defeat as a one-off rather than part of a recurring pattern of recent results. Repeated references to injuries and missed chances underscore legitimate challenges, but risk sounding like justifications rather than solutions. The system and approach haven’t evolved, leaving fans to wonder if resilience alone can salvage a season slipping away. Credit where credit is due, of course, but more than one thing can be true at once.

So, is this the turning point for Treaty? Maybe, maybe not; we’ll see how it plays out tonight, and perhaps I'll retract everything I've previously said. Nobody enjoys harsh criticism, online or in person, but as Roy Keane would say, “It’s your job.” Fans are entitled to voice frustration when results disappoint, but the manager can't let it get the better of them.

And yet, from all accounts, that’s exactly what happened after the recent 1–1 with Kerry. Words were exchanged on the touchline, with claims that a “sticky pitch” (meaning: a pitch that is damp and drying after rain, making it difficult and unpredictable to play on due to erratic ball bounce) was an issue, and something along the lines of that critics “can’t judge until they get their coaching licenses.”

Fans are fed up, and it’s not just at what's happening on the pitch. The frustration extends to the club, the regime, and, to some extent, even the players. The bottom line? I don’t think managerial prospects are changing soon, but I personally think that Limerick football is clearly overdue for a new face, even if that person faces the same budgetary challenges, among others. Something has to give. 

The Takeover Turned Sour?

In late 2023, Treaty United confirmed that Vancouver-based Tricorps Pacific Capital had taken over the club in partnership with the current CEO.

Financially, it brought much-needed backing to the club. But what progress has been made since? I’m not talking about community initiatives, the long-term lease of the Markets Field, or progress off the pitch, which, of course, have happened. I’m talking about the men’s team, where success should ultimately be measured by results, and where momentum appears to have stalled. The women’s team, meanwhile, has had an incredible season, record-breaking in fact, and full kudos to everyone involved. Clearly, a serious budget has been made available there, and rightly so: women’s soccer is booming, and they deserve every bit of support.

The issue is that I’d imagine the men’s side hasn’t seen anything approaching the same investment, despite arguably being the main revenue driver.

Any football fan knows that the clubs performing best on the pitch are the ones that work hand-in-hand with their supporters, with fans fully behind them. From the outside, it’s painfully clear that communication between the club and its supporters has collapsed.

Meanwhile, whispers of Limerick FC potentially returning in the forthcoming third tier have started to stir nerves behind the scenes. Talk of a joint Limerick FC–Carew Park entity is gaining traction, and some in the Treaty camp are reportedly uneasy. A recent X poll from LOI Talk asked fans who they would support if Limerick FC returned: out of 62 votes, 56.5% said they’d stick with Treaty, while 43.5% said they’d switch (or switch back) to Limerick FC.

At the end of the day, the story isn’t just about money or results, it’s about trust, communication, and feeling part of something bigger. I have always been a big advocate and supporter of LOI and fan culture in Limerick, it’s why I’m so passionate. Still, fans and volunteers feel sidelined, key figures have been brushed aside, and the men’s team seems to be running in a bubble, cut off from the people who keep the club alive. Until the club can reconnect with its supporters, bridge the gaps, and show that decisions are made with everyone in mind, the men’s team is unfortunately going to struggle, not just on the pitch, but everywhere else that counts. There’s only so much house you can build without foundations.

What Does The Rest Of The Season Hold?

Today, it’s Finn Harps, a fixture that could define the season. The run-in after that isn’t exactly a walk in the park either. Rumor has it Barrett may rely on long balls in search of goals, which doesn’t bode well for midfielders who’ll likely be sidelined for the remainder of the campaign. Recent shaky displays from Corey Chambers suggest Matt Boylan could be in line to start in goal, adding another layer of uncertainty.

Every single game left on the schedule is a “must-win” if Treaty wants to stay competitive. There’s no room for error, no chance to coast through a draw, every point counts, and every lapse will be scrutinised.

This is where the season hangs in the balance. Treaty could stabilise, rebuild confidence, and make a late surge in the playoff race. Or they could spiral into an end-of-season collapse. The next eight games aren’t just about results; they’re about identity, resilience, and whether this squad, and this club, can rise to the occasion.